Options probability calculator

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Model covered calls, bull call spreads, and long straddles with a quick expected-move and probability overlay.

Used for covered calls. Other strategies ignore this field.

Used for bull call spreads. Other strategies ignore this field.

Covered call income only. Must be a multiple of 100 (1 contract = 100 shares).

Covered call income only. Enter 0 for non-dividend stocks.

All required fields must be filled in.

Probability of Profit

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Enter a strategy, strikes, premium, and implied volatility proxy to estimate breakeven and payout shape.

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Example calculations

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Income covered call

$100 stock, $105 strike, $3.50 premium

A modest upside cap in exchange for a high-probability income setup.

Result: POP favors a small profit, but assignment odds stay meaningful above the strike

Covered call income — 100 shares

100 shares at $150, sell $155 call for $3, 30 DTE

Use Covered Call Income mode to focus on premium yield, annualized income, and dividend integration.

Result: $300 premium income, ~24% annualized premium yield, ~25.5% combined with dividends

Covered call income — 500 shares with dividends

500 shares of a $50 dividend stock, $52 strike for $1.20

Larger position with dividend yield stacking on top of premium income for a combined yield estimate.

Result: $600 premium, ~19.5% annualized premium yield, ~22.7% combined with 3.2% dividends

Bull call spread

$95/$105 spread for a $3 debit

Defined-risk directional setup where breakeven is above the long strike.

Result: Defined max loss with upside capped once price moves through the short strike
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