Options Probability Calculator
Estimate breakeven, max profit or loss, probability of profit, and expected move for covered calls, bull call spreads, and long straddles.
Last updated: 2026-03-17
Options probability calculator
Enter your values
Model covered calls, bull call spreads, and long straddles with a quick expected-move and probability overlay.
Probability of Profit
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Enter a strategy, strikes, premium, and implied volatility proxy to estimate breakeven and payout shape.
Calculation History(0)
Example calculations
Tap an example to prefill the calculator with sample values.
Income covered call
$100 stock, $105 strike, $3.50 premium
A modest upside cap in exchange for a high-probability income setup.
Result: POP favors a small profit, but assignment odds stay meaningful above the strike
Covered call income — 100 shares
100 shares at $150, sell $155 call for $3, 30 DTE
Use Covered Call Income mode to focus on premium yield, annualized income, and dividend integration.
Result: $300 premium income, ~24% annualized premium yield, ~25.5% combined with dividends
Covered call income — 500 shares with dividends
500 shares of a $50 dividend stock, $52 strike for $1.20
Larger position with dividend yield stacking on top of premium income for a combined yield estimate.
Result: $600 premium, ~19.5% annualized premium yield, ~22.7% combined with 3.2% dividends
Bull call spread
$95/$105 spread for a $3 debit
Defined-risk directional setup where breakeven is above the long strike.
Result: Defined max loss with upside capped once price moves through the short strike
How the options model works
Each strategy turns your inputs into breakeven points and capped or uncapped payoff zones. The calculator then estimates how much of the modeled price distribution falls into those profitable regions by expiration.
This is most useful for quick screening and trade framing. It gives you a clean sense of required move, implied probability, and payoff asymmetry before you size a position.
Options probability FAQs
What the calculator measures, what it ignores, and how to interpret POP.
How is probability of profit estimated?
The calculator uses current price, annualized volatility, and time to expiration to estimate a log-normal price distribution, then measures how much of that distribution lands in the profit zone.
Does this replace a full options platform model?
No. It is a planning model, not a broker or options analytics terminal. Greeks, skew, interest rates, and dividends can all change real outcomes.
Why is expected move included?
Expected move helps you sanity-check whether the option structure is demanding more price movement than the market is currently implying.
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