Model up to five discrete outcomes and see the weighted average before you commit to a decision.
Expected Value
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Enter a full set of scenario outcomes and probabilities to calculate EV and risk spread.
Tap an example to prefill the calculator with sample values.
Launch decision
Strong upside, moderate base case, controlled downside
Useful when a launch or offer has a few discrete outcomes and you want the weighted average before deciding.
Result: Positive EV with a meaningful but bounded downside tail
Promo gamble
Small wins, one painful miss
A common pattern where the worst-case scenario drags the average below zero despite several winning paths.
Result: Negative EV even though winning outcomes occur more often than losing ones