Expected Value Calculator

Calculate expected value, variance, standard deviation, and upside/downside odds from up to five discrete outcome scenarios.

Last updated: 2026-03-25

Expected value calculator

Enter your values

Model up to five discrete outcomes and see the weighted average before you commit to a decision.

Expected Value

Enter a full set of scenario outcomes and probabilities to calculate EV and risk spread.

Calculation History(0)

No calculations yet. Complete a calculation to see it here.

Example calculations

Tap an example to prefill the calculator with sample values.

Launch decision

Strong upside, moderate base case, controlled downside

Useful when a launch or offer has a few discrete outcomes and you want the weighted average before deciding.

Result: Positive EV with a meaningful but bounded downside tail

Promo gamble

Small wins, one painful miss

A common pattern where the worst-case scenario drags the average below zero despite several winning paths.

Result: Negative EV even though winning outcomes occur more often than losing ones

How the EV model works

Each scenario contributes its outcome multiplied by its probability. Adding those weighted outcomes gives expected value, which is the long-run average across the full distribution.

Variance and standard deviation then measure how widely the scenario outcomes spread around that average, so you can distinguish a high-EV decision with modest swings from a high-EV decision with painful downside risk.

Expected-value FAQs

How EV differs from a guaranteed result, why probabilities must sum to 100%, and how risk spread is measured.

What does expected value tell you?

Expected value is the long-run weighted average of all modeled outcomes. It does not predict what happens once; it shows what the average result would converge toward if the same setup repeated many times.

Why include variance and standard deviation?

Because two choices can have the same EV while carrying very different volatility. These metrics show how widely the outcomes spread around the average, which helps you judge risk, not just average return.

Do the probabilities need to add to 100%?

Yes. The calculator expects a complete discrete distribution, so the active scenario probabilities must sum to 100% for the weighted average to be meaningful.

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Pair expected-value framing with probability, ROI, and decision-analysis tools.

Dice Probability Calculator

Pair weighted averages with exact odds when comparing discrete outcomes.

ROI Calculator

Translate a positive or negative expected value into a simpler investment-return frame.

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