Estimate in-the-money odds and current vesting exposure for an employee option grant.
Probability In The Money
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Enter current price, strike, volatility, and vesting stage to estimate the grant's probability profile.
Tap an example to prefill the calculator with sample values.
Late-stage startup grant
$24 share price on a $12 strike
Useful when a grant is already comfortably in the money but liquidity timing is still uncertain.
Result: Healthy in-the-money odds with meaningful spread already on the vested portion
Underwater growth-company grant
$8 current price on a $10 strike
Shows how quickly equity planning changes when the common price slips below the grant price.
Result: Probability can still recover over time, but the current intrinsic spread is zero